A Ray of Hope for the Instant Gratification Generation
Professor Stephen Valdes
Most of what you hear about the economy can be right or wrong depending on yourself interest, whether it is Democrat, Republican, cable and radio news entertainers or Tea Party. And because we have midterm elections coming up.
America is too big and diverse to be described by blanket statements. We are 50 states on 3.7 million square miles with 307 million people who produce $14 trillion in annual GDP and privately hold $54 trillion in net assets.
You can’t argue the facts that the economy which was set to collapse under the previous administration began to recover in the spring / summer of 2009. Third quarter of 09 it was up 2.9% and 4th quarter boomed at 6%. This pattern has stuck and is slowly moving forward with a first quarter of 3.5% and moving up slowly. Too slow for those who expect everything to be solved in a half hour sitcom
Many doubt the way it’s being done with deficit spending, and government intervention. We all want simple answers to complex problems. And in the mist of our materialistic credit orgy, our educational system failed to give us the intellect needed to look at the problems we have made for ourselves in rational terms. So many of us turn to the false gods of pundit entertainers for answers.
Blame it on the government! Excuse me? Blame it on ourselves for letting it happen! As long as our credit cards were good, no one questioned. But as the house of cards crumbled we have to blame someone or some institution, rightly or wrongly. Not my fault. I put a yellow ribbon on my car, and brought a big screen TV on credit.
The latest Rasmussen pole tells us that only 23% of the people of the United States believe that the Federal government has the consent of the governed. This is what sparked a popular uprising of folks to become the Tea Party. A populist movement that is increasingly alarmed at the explosion of earmarks, bailouts and government spending that marked the waning years of the Bush administration, and continues with the Obama administration. The Tea party reminds us all, Democrat, and Republican alike that America was founded on the revolutionary concept of citizen participation, activism and the primacy of the individual over its government. The major divisions in this country are no longer between parties but between political elites financed by global corporations and we the people.
Unfortunately 60 % of us don’t vote, and of the 40% that do, less than 15% understand the issues. We have lost our revolution at the take out window of McDonalds, and the easy money the Feds gave us to buy things we couldn’t afford. We were seduced by Madison Avenue, and Wall Street. 73% of our economy is driven by consumption, so if you aren’t spending, the economy is hurting. The American dream isn’t about materialism, but the spirituality of man. It’s a shame that we have to learn our lessons the hard way, but who ever said life was fair.
One of the fundamentals in this dilemma we find ourselves in is confidence. Confidence in our leadership, confidence in the economy, and confidence in our ability to see the future. Business managers are reluctant to commit to new hires, and added inventory. The average consumer is only spending necessities, and investors are freaked at every bit of negative news.
All is not doom and gloom. The Kiplinger letter out of Washington D.C., which forecasts for management decision making, stated that the bad news we heard in August arises from temporary woes not persistent problems. Labor Layoffs in June and July were mostly of short term Census workers, and the expiration of tax credits for home buyers, and the European financial crisis. Neither of these influences will be permanent, and the trend of increases in imports and exports from 9%-12% will reassert itself in the coming year. Housing isn’t fixed, but it took 20 years to get there.
Most of the components of growth are here. Big banks have the funds to lend thanks to shrinking loan losses and strong earnings, and $275 billion in excess liquidity as of the first quarter. What’s more, profits for the S&P 500 were up 46% from second quarter 2009. Lastly consumers are getting their budgets in order. 19% of household income went to debt payment in 2007. Today, 17%, the lowest since 1998.
So for those in the Instant Gratification Generation who have been lead to believe that the global economy will recover in two years or less by TV entertainers, and politicians that want their power back, start reading more, look for answers, rather than affirmations of your own opinions. And look to where left and right can converge, and demand accountability of your politicians, and get involved in being an American.